FAXAI (14W.2019) -- strongest typhoon to hit Tokyo? -- YES
Mike Fiorino
09 September 2019
0330 UTC
I've done this search before...and now that the excellent JTWC forecasts -- that FAXAI would hit Tokyo -- have verified...I've taken another look...
here is the latest working JTWC best track:
Using the lat/lon of Tokyo as 35.7N 139.7E we find from the 18Z 08 SEP 19 position:
2019090818 14W.2019 090 958 35.3N 139.6E 94 49 0.0 13.0 C TY WN RCB 42/43 lf: 0.69 FAXAI
Breaking down the position:
2019090818 date-time-group YYYYMMDDHH
14W.2019 NNB.YYYY -- storm number NN subbasin B
090 max 10-m 1-min surface wind [knots]
958 central pressure [mb]
35.3N 139.6E latitude longitude
94 mean radius of 34 kt winds [nmi]
49 mean radius of 50 kt winds [nmi]
C TY WN C: source is the CARQ card
RCB 42/43
lf: 0.69 FAXAI lf: is %land on a 0.5 deg grid
this position 35.3N 139.6E is almost a direct hit... However, this is the JTWC working best track and so the intensity (90 kt) and position will likely change but it is highly unlikely to be more than 10 kts and 0.5 deg..
Is 90 kts the strongest ever? Consulting the digital typhoon and searching a 1.0 deg box around the Tokyo lat/lon there were 11 typhoons:
1 195202 DINAH W. N. Pacific 1952-06-20 06:00 1952-06-24 18:00 4 Days 12 Hours 960 2 195405 GRACE W. N. Pacific 1954-08-12 00:00 1954-08-20 12:00 8 Days 12 Hours 940 3 195822 IDA W. N. Pacific 1958-09-20 18:00 1958-09-27 00:00 6 Days 6 Hours 877 4 195906 ELLEN W. N. Pacific 1959-08-02 18:00 1959-08-10 00:00 7 Days 6 Hours 965 5 196517 LUCY W. N. Pacific 1965-08-15 06:00 1965-08-23 00:00 7 Days 18 Hours 940 6 197113 IVY W. N. Pacific 1971-07-05 00:00 1971-07-08 18:00 3 Days 12 Hours 990 7 197129 CARMEN W. N. Pacific 1971-09-25 18:00 1971-09-26 18:00 1 Days 0 Hours 990 8 198514 RUBY W. N. Pacific 1985-08-28 00:00 1985-09-01 00:00 4 Days 0 Hours 985 9 198615 NO-NAME W. N. Pacific 1986-09-02 06:00 1986-09-03 00:00 0 Days 18 Hours 992 10 200115 DANAS W. N. Pacific 2001-09-04 00:00 2001-09-12 06:00 8 Days 6 Hours 945 11 201506 NOUL W. N. Pacific 2015-05-03 18:00 2015-05-12 06:00 8 Days 12 Hours 920
which are shown below:
finding the positions closest to Tokyo from the JMA and JTWC best tracks here's a listing of the intensities for the 11 typhoons before FAXAI:
1 195202 DINAH 55 2 195405 GRACE 50? NOT IN JTWC BT 3 195822 IDA 70 4 195906 ELLEN 50 5 196517 LUCY 55 interp 6 197113 IVY 40 7 197129 CARMEN 45 8 198514 RUBY 45 9 198615 NO-NAME 40 NOT in JTWC BT 10 200115 DANAS 65 interp 11 201506 NOUL 40
IDA (15W.1958) at 70 kts and DANAS (06W.2001) 65 kts were the previous strongest typhoons near Tokyo.
Conclusion: FAXAI (14W.2019) at 90 kts is the strongest typhoon to hit Tokyo!
a full listing of the data is show below:
1 195202 DINAH W. N. Pacific 1952-06-20 06:00 1952-06-24 18:00 4 Days 12 Hours 960 1952 6 23 18 35.8 139.9 984 1952062312 02W.1952 055 ---- 33.9N 136.4E --- --- 51.7 34.7 b NT NW --- 19/27 lf: 0.32 1952062318 02W.1952 050 ---- 35.3N 140.1E --- --- 64.6 35.0 b NT NW --- 20/27 lf: 0.67 2 195405 GRACE W. N. Pacific 1954-08-12 00:00 1954-08-20 12:00 8 Days 12 Hours 940 1954 8 19 12 35.4 139.4 991 # not in JTWC BT -- XT? 3 195822 IDA W. N. Pacific 1958-09-20 18:00 1958-09-27 00:00 6 Days 6 Hours 877 1958 9 26 12 34.4 139.0 955 1958 9 26 18 36.6 140.4 980 1958092612 15W.1958 070 ---- 34.5N 139.5E --- --- 31.7 20.0 b NT NW --- 25/30 lf: 0.07 1958092618 15W.1958 070 ---- 36.8N 140.5E --- --- 28.1 22.7 b NT NW --- 26/30 lf: 0.86 4 195906 ELLEN W. N. Pacific 1959-08-02 18:00 1959-08-10 00:00 7 Days 6 Hours 965 1959 8 9 06 35.2 138.8 980 1959 8 9 12 36.0 141.0 984 1959080906 06W.1959 050 ---- 35.4N 138.9E --- --- 67.9 16.0 b NT NW --- 29/42 lf: 0.84 1959080912 06W.1959 050 ---- 36.0N 141.3E --- --- 72.2 18.0 b NT NW --- 30/42 lf: 0.00 5 196517 LUCY W. N. Pacific 1965-08-15 06:00 1965-08-23 00:00 7 Days 18 Hours 940 1965 8 22 18 35.5 139.6 990 1965082212 18W.1965 070 ---- 34.9N 138.9E --- --- 35.6 9.2 b NT NW --- 31/34 lf: 0.47 1965082218 18W.1965 045 ---- 35.8N 139.7E --- --- 39.3 11.0 b NT NW --- 32/34 lf: 0.94 6 197113 IVY W. N. Pacific 1971-07-05 00:00 1971-07-08 18:00 3 Days 12 Hours 990 1971 7 7 12 34.9 138.0 992 1971 7 7 18 36.0 140.4 994 1971070712 13W.1971 040 ---- 35.0N 138.1E --- --- 45.5 19.3 b TW NW --- 10/11 lf: 0.77 1971070718 13W.1971 030 ---- 36.1N 140.4E --- --- 54.0 21.3 b TW NW --- 11/11 lf: 0.5 7 197129 CARMEN W. N. Pacific 1971-09-25 18:00 1971-09-26 18:00 1 Days 0 Hours 990 1971 9 26 12 35.5 139.2 994 1971092606 28W.1971 045 ---- 34.4N 136.2E --- --- 25.8 33.3 b TW NW --- 9/10 lf: 0.94 1971092612 28W.1971 040 ---- 35.8N 139.2E --- --- 46.6 29.1 b TW NW --- 10/10 lf: 0.99 8 198514 RUBY W. N. Pacific 1985-08-28 00:00 1985-09-01 00:00 4 Days 0 Hours 985 1985 8 30 12 34.8 139.5 992 50 1985083012 14W.1985 050 ---- 34.7N 139.7E --- --- 354.3 12.6 b TW WN --- 15/21 lf: 0.07 1985083018 14W.1985 040 ---- 36.0N 139.9E --- --- 5.6 12.6 c TW WN --- 16/21 lf: 0.87 9 198615 NO-NAME W. N. Pacific 1986-09-02 06:00 1986-09-03 00:00 0 Days 18 Hours 992 # not in jtwc BT !!! 1986 9 3 00 34.5 139.1 996 1986 9 3 06 36.1 139.9 997 10 200115 DANAS W. N. Pacific 2001-09-04 00:00 2001-09-12 06:00 8 Days 6 Hours 945 2001 9 11 03 35.8 139.9 974 55 2001091100 19W.2001 070 972 35.1N 139.5E 170 70 39.0 9.0 C TY WN --- 35/40 lf: 0.29 2001091106 19W.2001 060 980 36.4N 140.4E 165 65 37.0 12.0 C TY WN --- 36/40 lf: 0.66 11 201506 NOUL W. N. Pacific 2015-05-03 18:00 2015-05-12 06:00 8 Days 12 Hours 920 2015 5 12 12 34.3 138.0 996 2015 5 12 18 38.2 142.2 996 2015051212 06W.2015 040 993 34.4N 138.4E --- --- 50.0 46.0 C TS NW --- 50/51 lf: 0.20 NOUL 2015051218 06W.2015 040 ---- 37.6N 144.1E --- --- 54.1 55.5 c TW NW --- 51/51 lf: 0.00 12 14W.2019 2019090818 14W.2019 090 958 35.3N 139.6E 94 49 0.0 13.0 C TY WN RCB 42/43 lf: 0.69 FAXAI
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