Sunday, September 8, 2019

FAXAI Tokyo

FAXAI (14W.2019) -- strongest typhoon to hit Tokyo? -- YES

Mike Fiorino 
09 September 2019
0330 UTC

I've done this search before...and now that the excellent JTWC forecasts -- that FAXAI would hit Tokyo -- have verified...I've taken another look...

here is the latest working JTWC best track:


Using the lat/lon of Tokyo as 35.7N 139.7E  we find from the 18Z 08 SEP 19 position:

2019090818      14W.2019 090  958  35.3N  139.6E   94  49    0.0 13.0 C  TY WN  RCB  42/43  lf: 0.69 FAXAI

Breaking down the position:

2019090818      date-time-group YYYYMMDDHH
14W.2019        NNB.YYYY -- storm number NN subbasin B
090             max 10-m 1-min surface wind [knots] 
958             central pressure [mb]
35.3N  139.6E   latitude  longitude
94              mean radius of 34 kt winds [nmi]
49              mean radius of 50 kt winds [nmi]
C  TY WN        C: source is the CARQ card
RCB  42/43  
lf: 0.69 FAXAI  lf: is %land on a 0.5 deg grid

this position 35.3N 139.6E is almost a direct hit...  However, this is the JTWC working best track and so the intensity (90 kt) and position will likely change but it is highly unlikely to be more than 10 kts and 0.5 deg..

Is 90 kts the strongest ever?  Consulting the digital typhoon and searching a 1.0 deg box around the Tokyo lat/lon there were 11 typhoons:

1       195202       DINAH      W. N. Pacific   1952-06-20 06:00        1952-06-24 18:00        4 Days 12 Hours         960
2       195405       GRACE      W. N. Pacific   1954-08-12 00:00        1954-08-20 12:00        8 Days 12 Hours         940
3       195822       IDA        W. N. Pacific   1958-09-20 18:00        1958-09-27 00:00        6 Days 6 Hours          877
4       195906       ELLEN      W. N. Pacific   1959-08-02 18:00        1959-08-10 00:00        7 Days 6 Hours          965
5       196517       LUCY       W. N. Pacific   1965-08-15 06:00        1965-08-23 00:00        7 Days 18 Hours         940
6       197113       IVY        W. N. Pacific   1971-07-05 00:00        1971-07-08 18:00        3 Days 12 Hours         990
7       197129       CARMEN     W. N. Pacific   1971-09-25 18:00        1971-09-26 18:00        1 Days 0 Hours          990
8       198514       RUBY       W. N. Pacific   1985-08-28 00:00        1985-09-01 00:00        4 Days 0 Hours          985
9       198615       NO-NAME    W. N. Pacific   1986-09-02 06:00        1986-09-03 00:00        0 Days 18 Hours         992
10      200115       DANAS      W. N. Pacific   2001-09-04 00:00        2001-09-12 06:00        8 Days 6 Hours          945
11      201506       NOUL       W. N. Pacific   2015-05-03 18:00        2015-05-12 06:00        8 Days 12 Hours         920

which are shown below:


finding the positions closest to Tokyo from the JMA and JTWC best tracks here's a listing of the intensities for the 11 typhoons before FAXAI:

1       195202       DINAH      55
2       195405       GRACE      50? NOT IN JTWC BT
3       195822       IDA        70
4       195906       ELLEN      50
5       196517       LUCY       55 interp
6       197113       IVY        40
7       197129       CARMEN     45
8       198514       RUBY       45
9       198615       NO-NAME    40 NOT in JTWC BT
10      200115       DANAS      65 interp
11      201506       NOUL       40

IDA (15W.1958) at 70 kts and DANAS (06W.2001) 65 kts were the previous strongest typhoons near Tokyo. 

Conclusion: FAXAI (14W.2019) at 90 kts is the strongest typhoon to hit Tokyo!

a full listing of the data is show below:


1       195202  DINAH      W. N. Pacific        1952-06-20 06:00        1952-06-24 18:00        4 Days 12 Hours         960
1952    6       23      18      35.8    139.9   984

1952062312      02W.1952 055 ----  33.9N  136.4E  --- ---   51.7 34.7 b  NT NW  ---  19/27  lf: 0.32          
1952062318      02W.1952 050 ----  35.3N  140.1E  --- ---   64.6 35.0 b  NT NW  ---  20/27  lf: 0.67 


2       195405  GRACE      W. N. Pacific        1954-08-12 00:00        1954-08-20 12:00        8 Days 12 Hours         940
1954    8       19      12      35.4    139.4   991   # not in JTWC BT -- XT?


3       195822  IDA        W. N. Pacific        1958-09-20 18:00        1958-09-27 00:00        6 Days 6 Hours          877
1958    9       26      12      34.4    139.0   955  
1958    9       26      18      36.6    140.4   980

1958092612      15W.1958 070 ----  34.5N  139.5E  --- ---   31.7 20.0 b  NT NW  ---  25/30  lf: 0.07          
1958092618      15W.1958 070 ----  36.8N  140.5E  --- ---   28.1 22.7 b  NT NW  ---  26/30  lf: 0.86  


4       195906  ELLEN      W. N. Pacific        1959-08-02 18:00        1959-08-10 00:00        7 Days 6 Hours          965
1959    8       9       06      35.2    138.8   980
1959    8       9       12      36.0    141.0   984

1959080906      06W.1959 050 ----  35.4N  138.9E  --- ---   67.9 16.0 b  NT NW  ---  29/42  lf: 0.84          
1959080912      06W.1959 050 ----  36.0N  141.3E  --- ---   72.2 18.0 b  NT NW  ---  30/42  lf: 0.00          


5       196517  LUCY       W. N. Pacific        1965-08-15 06:00        1965-08-23 00:00        7 Days 18 Hours         940
1965    8       22      18      35.5    139.6   990

1965082212      18W.1965 070 ----  34.9N  138.9E  --- ---   35.6  9.2 b  NT NW  ---  31/34  lf: 0.47          
1965082218      18W.1965 045 ----  35.8N  139.7E  --- ---   39.3 11.0 b  NT NW  ---  32/34  lf: 0.94  


6       197113  IVY        W. N. Pacific        1971-07-05 00:00        1971-07-08 18:00        3 Days 12 Hours         990
1971    7       7       12      34.9    138.0   992
1971    7       7       18      36.0    140.4   994


1971070712      13W.1971 040 ----  35.0N  138.1E  --- ---   45.5 19.3 b  TW NW  ---  10/11  lf: 0.77          
1971070718      13W.1971 030 ----  36.1N  140.4E  --- ---   54.0 21.3 b  TW NW  ---  11/11  lf: 0.5


7       197129  CARMEN     W. N. Pacific        1971-09-25 18:00        1971-09-26 18:00        1 Days 0 Hours          990
1971    9       26      12      35.5    139.2   994

1971092606      28W.1971 045 ----  34.4N  136.2E  --- ---   25.8 33.3 b  TW NW  ---   9/10  lf: 0.94          
1971092612      28W.1971 040 ----  35.8N  139.2E  --- ---   46.6 29.1 b  TW NW  ---  10/10  lf: 0.99        


8       198514  RUBY       W. N. Pacific        1985-08-28 00:00        1985-09-01 00:00        4 Days 0 Hours          985
1985    8       30      12      34.8    139.5   992     50

1985083012      14W.1985 050 ----  34.7N  139.7E  --- ---  354.3 12.6 b  TW WN  ---  15/21  lf: 0.07          
1985083018      14W.1985 040 ----  36.0N  139.9E  --- ---    5.6 12.6 c  TW WN  ---  16/21  lf: 0.87         

9       198615  NO-NAME    W. N. Pacific        1986-09-02 06:00        1986-09-03 00:00        0 Days 18 Hours         992  # not in jtwc BT !!!
1986    9       3       00      34.5    139.1   996
1986    9       3       06      36.1    139.9   997


10      200115  DANAS      W. N. Pacific        2001-09-04 00:00        2001-09-12 06:00        8 Days 6 Hours          945
2001    9       11      03      35.8    139.9   974     55

2001091100      19W.2001 070  972  35.1N  139.5E  170  70   39.0  9.0 C  TY WN  ---  35/40  lf: 0.29          
2001091106      19W.2001 060  980  36.4N  140.4E  165  65   37.0 12.0 C  TY WN  ---  36/40  lf: 0.66         


11      201506  NOUL       W. N. Pacific        2015-05-03 18:00        2015-05-12 06:00        8 Days 12 Hours         920
2015    5       12      12      34.3    138.0   996
2015    5       12      18      38.2    142.2   996

2015051212      06W.2015 040  993  34.4N  138.4E  --- ---   50.0 46.0 C  TS NW  ---  50/51  lf: 0.20 NOUL     
2015051218      06W.2015 040 ----  37.6N  144.1E  --- ---   54.1 55.5 c  TW NW  ---  51/51  lf: 0.00  


12      14W.2019
2019090818      14W.2019 090  958  35.3N  139.6E   94  49    0.0 13.0 C  TY WN  RCB  42/43  lf: 0.69 FAXAI



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